Central Coast had one of California’s strongest housing markets in May. Will it last?

BY JOHN LYNCH UPDATED JUNE 30, 2023 10:37 AM

The San Luis Obispo County housing market appears to be leveling out after an opening to 2023 that saw median home prices dip as low as $775,000, even as active listings grew.

According to the California Association of Realtors May 2023 home sales and price report, the Central Coast — which encompasses San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Monterey and Santa Cruz counties — was the only major region to see its median price increase last month, compared to the same month in 2022.

May also marked the first time in six months the Central Coast’s median price registered a positive year-over-year growth, the report said.

But while median home prices and sales in some areas rose, Realtors warned the local housing market could start to tighten even further for buyers who can’t pay top dollar.

San Luis Obispo Realtor Graham Updegrove said continued inventory problems are likely to be the “new normal” locally due high interest rates.

“Everybody that has a 3% mortgage, depending on what happens going forward, have little incentive to move,” Updegrove said. “There’s a fear factor built in.”

HOW DID CENTRAL COAST HOUSING MARKETS COMPARE IN MAY?

According to the report, sales continued to fall in all major regions of the California housing market, though declines were less drastic overall.

With 23.8% fewer sales this May than in 2022, the Bay Area had the biggest sales drop in the most recent report, followed by Southern California with 22.3% fewer sales, the “Far North” — which encompasses Butte, Lassen, Plumas, Shasta, Siskiyou and Tehama counties — with 21.8%, the Central Valley with 20% and the Central Coast with 17.3%

The latter two were the only regions that recorded a drop of 20% or less from last year, according to the California Association of Realtors.

Meanwhile, median home prices and the number of listings and homes sold varied across Central Coast counties.

San Luis Obispo County’s median home price dipped 6.1% from May 2022 to $875,000. Median home prices in the county also fell $50,000 short of April’s median price of $925,000, the CAR report found.

The county’s active listings also fell 13.6% year-over-year to 292, but were up from the previous month’s 271 listings.

According to the report, 234 homes were sold in the county in May. While that was 1.3% lower than May 2022, it represented a significant jump from the 143 sales in April.

Neighboring Monterey County experienced a slight decline in median home price between April and May, CAR data showed, dropping from $953,000 to $902,000.

Home sales in Monterey County picked up, growing from 124 sales in April to 152 in May, accompanied by a corresponding bump in listings from 227 in April to 260 in May.

To the south, Santa Barbara County’s median price of $1.08 million in April similarly increased to $1.27 million in May, while active listings held steady from the market’s 227 listings in April, settling at 225 in May.

This was accompanied by a slight increase in home sales, from 134 sales in April to 143 in May.

Santa Cruz County experienced a relatively large jump in home sales in May, going from 74 sales in April to 120 the next month, even with a more modest increase in listings from 185 to 219 month-over-month.

Despite the high volume of sales, however, Santa Cruz County’s median home price held steady at $1.35 million month-over-month.

NORTH COUNTY, NORTH COAST HOUSING MARKETS STAY STEADY AS SALES PICK UP

Following the trends of the county, the city of San Luis Obispo’s housing market saw growth last month, starting with a median price increase from $1.05 million to $1.12 million, according to the CAR report.

Active listings similarly saw a very slight increase month-over-month from 28 listings in the city in April to 31 in May, though the 31 homes that closed escrow represented a big jump from the 19 sales in April.

The county’s other major population centers also saw their housing markets largely hold steady.

Paso Robles’ May median home price of $685,000 was slightly higher than its $666,000 median price in April, but home sales climbed dramatically from 24 units sold to 52 month-over-month.

In Atascadero, median home prices fell slightly month-over-month from $809,000 in April to $808,000 in May. Listings followed suit, holding steady month-over-month from 30 in April to 31 in May.

However, Atascadero home sales also increased month-over-month from 22 to 28, the CAR report said.

Nearby Templeton continued to hold the top spot in terms of median home price, holding steady month-over-month from $1.51 million in April to $1.5 million in May.

Listings also slightly declined month-over-month from 15 to 13, while sales increased from six to seven over that time frame.

Meanwhile, Cambria experienced one of the more active months of any San Luis Obispo County city, as median home price exploded from $769,00 to $1.07 million in May, spurred by a jump in month-over-month sales from three in April to 11 in May.

Listings in the coastal town largely held steady month-over-month, increasing from 17 in April to 19 in May.

Down the coast, Morro Bay’s housing market remained one of the most consistent in the county by most metrics, with median prices climbing very slightly from $1.03 million in April to $1.08 million in May.

The city’s 18 active listings and nine homes sold were in line with the previous month’s 16 listings and nine sales.

Slightly further south, median home price in Los Osos saw a notable decline from $1.05 million in April to $810,000 in May, though home sales rose from eight to 12 over that period.

MEDIAN HOME PRICE DROPS IN SEVERAL SOUTH COUNTY CITIES

Meanwhile in the South County, median home prices fell across much of the area.

Month-over-month, median home prices in Grover Beach were cut nearly in half, plunging from $1.46 million in April to $752,000 in May, despite the number of home sales nearly doubling to 12 in May, compared with April’s five homes sold.

Arroyo Grande also experienced a drop in median home price, falling from $1.06 million to $912,000, though listings held strong month-over-month, increasing slightly from 24 in April to 26 in May.

Home sales in Arroyo Grande continued to outperform the city’s other South County neighbors, with 29 total sales in May.

That was also up from the 20 sales made in the city in April. Nipomo fell from an April median home price of $1.09 million to $983,000 in May. However, home sales in Nipomo made a substantial recovery between April and May, jumping from nine to 24.

Pismo Beach’s housing market proved more stable, with its median price climbing slightly from $1.46 million to $1.48 million.

Home sales in Pismo Beach ticked upwards from five to nine month-over-month, with active listings following suit, growing from six to 17 over that time.

REALTORS: HIGH INTEREST RATES WILL KEEP MARKET IN CHECK

Lindsey Harn, a San Luis Obispo Realtor with Christie’s International Real Estate Sereno, said the market’s current conditions are unfavorable to sellers, as high interest rates discourage current home owners from foraying into the buying market.

Harn said nationwide, 92% of all current homeowners have a mortgage rate less than 6%, 82.5% have a rate lower than 5% and 62% have a rate lower than 4%.

According to home buying corporation Freddie Mac, the rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was as 6.67% as of June 22. Harn said that’s a sticking point for both prospective sellers with locked-in low rates who don’t want to see their monthly payment rise and prospective home buyers with lower incomes, who would be priced out of the monthly payment on a home.

Harn said this problem shrinks available inventory, as existing homes simply are not changing hands as frequently.

However, there’s a chance more determined and higher-income buyers will ignore the high rate, with the expectation of refinancing down the line, she said.

“There’s always an initial knee jerk reaction when the rates jump up,” Harn said. “Now people who are in the market have adjusted to 6% and 7%, so that shock value is not there. People that are smart realize they’re going to be better off buying now at today’s rates than waiting three to four months for another rate hike.”

Updegrove said the current market has changed his view on what happens to demand in tight markets.

What used to be considered unsustainable price growth is no longer a deterrent to sales, because high income buyers will still be able to buy the least affordable properties.

“If we do have low inventory that is not meeting the demand, then you will continue to have buyers that are buying property that can afford it,” Updegrove said. “I think, unfortunately, or for better or worse, you know, some number of those are going to be out-of-town buyers.”

If nothing spooks the market, rates will likely come down eventually, but in the meantime, rate hikes are likely to continue through 2023, Updegrove said.

This story was originally published June 29, 2023, 8:00 AM.

Welcome to your dream beachfront property located at 1460 Strand Way on the picturesque Central Coast. This stunning property is a licensed vacation rental and is nestled directly on the sand, offering breathtaking views of the Pacific Ocean from sunrise to sunset. As you head inside this luxurious home, you'll immediately be greeted by the sound of the waves crashing onto the shore and the warmth of the California sun filtering through the large windows. With 3 bedrooms, 3.5 bathrooms, over 2,900 square feet of living space, and a 2-car garage, this property is the perfect beachfront oasis for both entertaining and relaxing. The spacious living room boasts stunning ocean views, a cozy dual sided fireplace, stamped concrete floors and ample seating for your family and guests. The fully equipped gourmet kitchen features recycled glass counters, stainless steel appliances, a breakfast bar that faces the dunes, and plenty of counter space for all your cooking needs. Enjoy your meals with a view in the adjacent dining area, which also opens up to a large balcony overlooking the ocean. Take the elevator up to the 2nd story primary suite, which is the ultimate retreat and feels like a private studio. Complete with 2 private balconies, a wet bar, a fireplace, direct access to the roof top deck, a spa-like en-suite bathroom with heated floors, and an expansive closet. The additional two downstairs bedrooms are generously sized, and each have their own bathrooms. The rooftop deck and multiple outdoor spaces are perfect for al fresco dining, entertaining, or simply lounging with a book. Head out your back door to have your toes in the sand and experience the ultimate in coastal living. With a prime location on the Strand, this property is just minutes away from local restaurants, shops, and entertainment options. Don't miss out on the opportunity to own this one-of-a-kind beachfront property in the heart of Oceano.

Listing Agent: Lindsey Harn

REALTOR® | License #01868098

Christie's International Real Estate, Sereno DRE #02101181

Study ranks San Luis Obispo high on list where people are buying a second home

For those looking to buy a second home, the San Luis Obispo area might be the spot to look.

A study by Smart Asset ranked the San Luis Obispo area 25th out of more than 400 metro areas across the United States where people are buying second homes.

"If you are a buyer, I would say don't give up, it's actually a really good time to be looking for a home," says Lindsey Harn, realtor for Christie's International Real Estate.

Harn said that most people who want to buy a second house either want to use it as a vacation home or as an investment property.

"We have a very, very high demand here and a very, very low supply," Harn continues.

For the Hanson's, living in San Luis Obispo is something they knew they would come back to after living in New York for a time.

Jessica Hanson shares that it is not uncommon for people to have a second home in San Luis Obispo.

"We know many members are not even permanent residents here, and they have second residents in this area because it is such a draw," Jessica says.

Harn tells me that a lack of inventory as a home buyer or someone moving to the area, means it could take longer for someone looking to buy a house.

To read the full study,click here.

By: McKenzie Diaz

Posted at 6:34 PM, Apr 03, 2023  and last updated 7:22 PM, Apr 03, 2023

March 2023 Market Update!

Click here to view our March 2023 Market Update!!

Christie's International Real Estate Sereno Welcomes Lindsey Harn
to San Luis Obispo Office

Christie's International Real Estate Sereno, the largest locally owned and operated independent real estate brokerage leader in Northern California, announced that Lindsey Harn, the number one agent in San Luis Obispo in 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022, has joined Christie's International Real Estate Sereno.

LOS GATOS, CALIF. (PRWEB) DECEMBER 28, 2022

Christie's International Real Estate Sereno, the largest locally owned and operated independent real estate brokerage leader in Northern California, announced that Lindsey Harn, the number one agent in San Luis Obispo in 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022, has joined Christie's International Real Estate Sereno. 

"I am beyond excited about this new chapter in my real estate career. Chris, Ryan, and I share a long history and love for Cal Poly and the Central Coast. Uniting with Christie's Sereno, one of the largest and most productive firms in the Silicon Valley and San Francisco Bay Area, in addition to our affiliations with Christie's global luxury network, adds many benefits to my clients through further expansion of my marketing and networking opportunities," shared Harn. 

Harn has personally successfully managed over 1,100 transactions throughout her career and was recently recognized as one of the top 1% of real estate professionals in the United States by RealTrends 2022. 

She was also ranked 19 out of 191,000 California real estate agents for transactions and 195 out of 1.4 million real estate agents nationwide for sales volume in RealTrends 2020 The Thousand. 

"Words can't express how honored we are to have Lindsey as part of the Christie's International Real Estate Sereno family. I have come to know and admire Lindsey over the past ten years and have always been inspired by her dedication to serving her clients and the local Central Coast community," said Chris Trapani, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Christie's International Real Estate Sereno. 

Harn's list of achievements also includes being an elite member of the 2019, 2020, and 2021 Christie's International Real Estate Masters Circle – one of 180 high-performing luxury agents worldwide selected for this honor. 

"We are so grateful that Lindsey has joined us. She definitely embodies the heart and soul of Sereno in how she shows for her team, clients, and community," expressed Ryan Iwanaga, Co-Founder and Chief Experience Officer. 

Harn will be based out of the Christie's International Real Estate Sereno office located in San Luis Obispo at 968 Toro Street and will continue to serve clients throughout the region. 

About Christie's International Real Estate Sereno 
Founded in 2006, Christie's International Real Estate Sereno is the largest locally-owned and operated independent real estate company in Northern California, with 18 offices and 580 agents in Silicon Valley, the SF Peninsula, Santa Cruz, the East Bay, Lake Tahoe, Sierra Foothills and the Central Coast, producing over $6.8 Billion in annual sales volume. Christie's International Real Estate Sereno is ranked among the top five brokerages in the nation for both per-agent productivity and the highest average sales price. 

The company offers a highly curated support platform and provides agents with concierge services to strengthen client relationships and world-class technology for well-executed transactions. Its agent-driven Sereno 1% For Good Charitable Foundation is changing lives in local communities and, to date, has generated over $5.2 million in charitable donations given to 300 local organizations.

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It’s getting more expensive to live on the Central Coast, prompting some homeowners to maximize the use of their property - creating another source of income.

In this Price of Paradise segment, we take a closer look at accessory dwelling units - also known as ADUs - and how you may soon see more of these popping up in your neighborhood.

Take a look at some trends in recent years.

The City of Santa Barbara has seen a steady rise of ADUs being built since 2019. The numbers taper off a bit this year. According to the city planner, this could be due to a combination of factors - from supply costs, limited labor and other post-pandemic issues.

In Santa Maria, there has also been a steady increase in ADU permit applications since 2018. Over the last five years, more than 1000 permits were issued for ADUs. Last year alone, nearly 400 permits were issued and already this year - 300 have been issued. City leaders say - Santa Maria is on pace to meet or exceed last year’s total.

In San Luis Obispo, the number is staying pretty consistent. The city is averaging 70 permits per year over the past three years.

Paso Robles is also seeing an increase. Last year, the city pulled 26 permits for accessory dwelling units. So far this year - they have about 16 permitted - with more in the works - the city anticipates passing last year's total.

City leaders say the permitting process is becoming easier for homeowners, largely due to more lenient state laws.

The state is making an effort to keep up with housing demand - sometimes overriding city policies for ADUs.

“State laws requires the city to have an expedited permit process for accessory dwelling units," said Michael Codron, City of San Luis Obispo Community Development Director. "We are able to turn around our plan checks very quickly.”

“They keep over the years, making things even easier so providing even more ways that people can permit ADUs and sort of overriding in some cities own regulations,” said Rosie Dyste, City of Santa Barbara Community Development Project Planner.

“The intent with the accessory dwelling unit is that it gives existing properties the ability to provide homes and hopefully in a manner that is affordable for people to be able to rent,” said Darren Nash, City of Paso Robles City Planner.

While some local homeowners praise the benefits, other residents hesitate to jump on board with the trend.

“We’re seeing more and more people take advantage of this opportunity whether it’s for family - or a way to afford a property.”

Lindsey Harn bought a home in San Luis Obispo back in 2017. Back then it was a two=bedroom, one-bathroom house.

She then added two legal bedrooms - bathroom drywall and a kitchenette - turning her attached two-car garage into a separate living space.

“I was able to create an affordable space for people who live and work here,” said Harn.

“If I were to have purchased this property as a four bedroom, two bath I would have had to pay a significantly higher price than buying a two bedroom one bath," said Harn. "The cost to convert this space was very affordable.”

The rise in popularity of ADUs is seen throughout Central Coast neighborhoods and now even new home developers are catching on.

Bryn Britton recently scooped up a brand new home in the San Luis Ranch community - with an ADU already attached.

“You’re just providing more opportunities in a community where it can be expensive to live,” said Britton.

She says homes with her floorplan are sprinkled throughout the development - something that’s more common in recent years.

“We have the opportunity to rent it out and offset some of the mortgage payments,” said Britton. “A few years ago, the state of California instituted some policies where they are encouraging ADUs and being able to provide more housing so it offsets the cost of housing since it is really expensive.”

While ADUs can help alleviate a tight rental market - or some breathing room for a homeowner - not all neighbors are jumping on board.

“While helping the shortage of housing - for ya know - granny units and ADUs - it’s just increasing the property values and making it harder for someone like me to buy a house in this area,” said Justin White, San Luis Obispo resident and Publicis Senior Software Engineer.

“These cars have to go somewhere. ADUs are not required to provide parking," said Allan Roy Cooper, Save Our Downtown Secretary. "We are beginning to confront a situation in the city where there’s less parking available. ”

By: Genelle Padilla

Posted at 10:39 AM, Oct 24, 2022 and last updated 11:58 AM, Oct 24, 2022

‘Mild’ recession could lower California home prices in 2023. What about SLO County?

Home prices, mortgage rates and the number of homes sold are all predicted to decline in California in 2023, according to a new report from the California Association of Realtors (CAR).

The decreases follow two years of coronavirus pandemic-related spikes in the statewide housing market, and before what CAR predicts to be a “mild” recession.

While would-be home buyers will likely welcome the shift in housing costs, the Realtors group also predicted a slight drop in overall home affordability.

How could that affect San Luis Obispo County’s real estate market?

“Housing is most people’s No. 1 expense, so if the housing expense stays high ... it’s going to cause people to either rethink their housing payments or rethink their spending habits,” local Realtor Lindsey Harn said.

RECESSION COULD MAKE HOUSING CHEAPER, BUT LESS ACCESSIBLE

According to the CAR report, the median home price in California is forecast to decrease by around 8% to $758,600 in 2023.

In 2022, statewide home prices increased by 5.7% to $831,460.

Housing affordability is projected to take a small hit next year, dropping from 19% in 2022 to 18% in 2023, the report said.

Harn said these housing market changes will likely impact SLO County to a lesser extent than the rest of the state, but added that there will be noticeable changes for home buyers and sellers.

“I think San Luis (Obispo) County will always outperform California on the average, because of the fact that we’ve just got so many variables that bring people to the area,” Harn said. “I stand with my belief that if there’s an overall decline, yes, we will feel it.

“But are we going to feel it as intensely as some of the less desirable counties in the state? I don’t think we’re going to feel it to the same extent.“

Harn said SLO County’s “rock bottom” looks different from other California counties’ low points from a housing perspective, based on the 2008 economic recession.

SLO County has more jobs now than it did in 2008, Harn said, “so it gives me hope that we will actually outperform what we did in ‘08 and ‘09.”

On top of improved job performance across SLO County, Harn said there are fewer bad mortgages, thanks to lessons learned from the 2008 housing market crisis.

In today’s tighter lending environment, there’s less chance of the bottom falling out of the real estate market and causing a true collapse, she said.

As of Thursday, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages have reached 7.08%.

With minimal declines in 30-year mortgage rates forecast in 2023, Harn said mortgages more than price could be the determining factor for prospective buyers.

Harn said if inflation becomes more manageable and stops forcing mortgage rates so high, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages could settle closer to 4% or 5%, which she said is “much healthier and affordable” for buyers and sellers.

If the stock market’s performance makes a dramatic fall, Harn said home values will follow, which is why the CAR report mentioned the coming recession.

According to the CAR report, the U.S. gross domestic product will dip by 0.5% in 2023, after a projected uptick of 0.9% in 2022.

The report also predicted a slight increase in unemployment.

“With California’s 2023 non-farm job growth rate at 1.0 percent, up from a projected increase of 4.9 percent in 2022, the state’s unemployment rate will edge up to 4.7 percent in 2023 from 2022’s projected rate of 4.4 percent,” the report said.

WHAT HOME BUYERS CAN LEARN FROM NEXT YEAR’S FORECAST

Barry Brown, an Arroyo Grande Realtor with 19 years’ experience in South County, said the Five Cities area of SLO County faces slightly different real estate challenges from the rest of the county.

“I think we are a little bit of a bedroom community for San Luis Obispo, because it is a little less expensive to live in Arroyo Grande and Grover Beach and Oceano, than in San Luis Obispo proper,” Brown said.

The market in the South County area, he said, tends to be more stable than other parts of SLO County, which are more sensitive to the state’s market shifts.

However, there are market factors that transcend these local differences in home prices and transactions, Brown said.

He said the biggest one driving the market in SLO County is the Fed’s current 7.08% mortgage rate.

“It doesn’t take a lot of math to figure out what that does to affordability,” Brown said.

Someone who bought a home for around $875,000, the median home price in the city of San Luis Obispo, would have had a monthly mortgage payment of $3,000 last year, when mortgage rates sat around 3%, Brown said.

Now, with rates around 7%, that person’s monthly payments are closer to $4,500 before taxes.

Those rate changes represent a “huge impact on the entire market,” Brown said.

The number of real estate transactions in SLO County, Brown said, are down 27% compared to this time in 2021.

That allows for an increased stock of unpurchased inventory on the market, which he said is up 47%.

“We say a balanced market is somewhere between six and seven months worth of inventory on hand,” Brown said. “That’s if no other homes came on the market, the supply would exhausted in six to seven months. We (have) probably about two to two and a half months worth of supply right now.”

Like Harn, Brown said the current lack of bad loans like the ones that contributed to the 2008 recession means the housing market is better protected against major economic shifts.

He thinks the California housing market will slow less than CAR’s forecast envisions.

Going into the next year, Brown said people are still better off buying homes even in a volatile real estate market than renting.

“I don’t think anybody has a crystal ball to be able to predict exactly what’s going to happen,” Brown said. “But if you’re going to live in the home, and you’re not going to treat it as a piggy bank, then I think that there’s still going to be plenty of people that want to buy homes.”

BY JOHN LYNCH
This story was originally published October 28, 2022 9:00 AM

Mortgage rates blow past 6%. Here’s what it means to SLO County home buyers

For the first time in 14 years, mortgage rates climbed above 6%, surpassing the interest rate’s peak during the Great Recession. According to recent data from the Federal Home Load Mortgage Corp., known as Freddie Mac, 30-year fixed rate mortgages, the most common type of mortgage product, reached 6.7% on Thursday, Sept. 29, as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to fight inflation. The most recent mortgage rate was more than double what it was one year ago, when rates sat at 3.01%, and marked the highest the 30-year fixed rate mortgage has hit this year, surpassing this year’s earlier peak of 5.81% in late June.

30-year mortgage rates cleared 6% Sept. 15, amid a six-week increase beginning Aug. 18 that saw rates climb around 1.5% from 5.13% to the current 6.7%. In San Luis Obispo County’s pricey housing market, the ripples of those high rates are already being felt by home buyers, local experts say.

LOCAL MORTGAGE EXPERT: FED ‘IN DENIAL’ ABOUT POTENTIAL RECESSION

Fernando Granados, a local loan originator with Envoy Mortgage in Arroyo Grande, said rates rising to the most recent peak represent the coming of another recession, despite some of the recent improvements seen in the economy. The Fed has been “in denial” about the impact of inflation, Granados said, and is now making up for some of the lost ground in the fight. “Inflation has snuck up on us now — I believe we’re on the verge of a recession, and the only way to fight inflation is to raise the rates,” Granados said. “The Fed is raising the rates now, and they’re going at such large increments because they fell behind.”

On top of that, the limited available stock of homes in the U.S. could keep prices and demand high despite the high mortgage rates. There are only around 700,000 to 800,000 available homes on the market nationwide, Granados said, and many of those homes are already under contract. However, no matter what the Fed does to adjust interest rates at this point, a recession will likely come, Granados said. That isn’t necessarily a bad thing for the housing market, he said, because while a recession will certainly hurt the wallets of millions of Americans, it will eventually begin to level out the housing market’s prices and mortgage spikes.

“If you look back in history, for the last 60, 70 years ... inflation hits, and when it’s followed by a recession, usually right after the recession, the rates start coming down,” Granados said. “We’re almost out of this. I’m thinking (in) the last quarter of this year or beginning quarter of 2023, the rates should start coming back down.” If recessions typically happen once every 10 years and the most recent major economic recession occurred in 2008, he said, then the economy is overdue for a downturn. That doesn’t mean rates will return to the sub-3% levels that were maintained during the COVID-19 pandemic’s housing surge, Granados said.

And it doesn’t mean mortgage rates and prices will instantaneously drop to the extent they did during the Great Recession, real estate broker Alex de Alba with The Real Estate Company of Cambria said. “In 2008, anyone would qualify for a loan, and people were unfortunately placed in a position to fail,” de Alba said. “After learning from our past mistakes, most banks have still been very strict on their loan requirements, making sure that the borrowers are well qualified.” Granados believes 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates will settle around 4% give or take when the dust clears from any downturn or recession.

Richardson Properties Realtor Lindsey Harn agreed with the potential 4% resting place for rates once the bubble bursts. “There is no normal, yet according to the most recent Fannie Mae projection rates, next year we should be back in the mid 4% range,” Harn said. But before that happens, rates may reach their peak in early November, Granados said, though if they keep growing at the same rate as today, that could put them north of 7%, a mark not seen since February 2001.

SLO COUNTY HOME BUYERS HESITANT TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON HIGH MORTGAGE RATE HOMES

Granados said high mortgage rates are already causing a slowdown for his SLO County business, where he said he has several customers who have been approved for mortgages for between four and six months. “(Those customers) make the same amount of money, the house is the same prices as they were six months ago or four months ago, but because of the interest rate, their payment is much higher now,” Granados said. However, there are reasons buyers can be optimistic about the future, both Granados and Harn said.

While Granados said home prices and rates are not intrinsically linked, Harn said rates this high will eventually cause prices to “flatten” as buyers are priced out by high interest. Additionally, those high rates may make applying for housing less competitive than it has been during the most recent housing boom, Harn said. “I would expect to see fewer multiple offers and a lower rate of appreciation during the periods where the interest rates are this high,” Harn said. In the immediate sense, Granados said while high prices and high mortgage rates may be discouraging, prospective home buyers should get into a home as soon as possible, admitting he might be “a little biased” because of his profession. At the very least, he said, buying a home will at least guarantee that payments will not rise year over year, a concern that is always present in an era of skyrocketing rents.

Harn gave similar advice, advising buyers to “marry the house, date the interest rate,” meaning looking to refinance the mortgage at a more favorable date or taking advantage of the complimentary refinances some local lenders may extend once rates cool down. “As a buyer, I would see this as a great opportunity,” Harn said. “The high rates may scare other buyers off, so a buyer could actually get a better price now, with less competition than waiting six months for rates to go back down.” If a recession is averted, buyers should closely watch the state of inflation, Harn said, as once inflationary pressures begin to ease, rates will start falling. The interest rate bubble will have to burst eventually, Granados said, and for better or worse, the next three to six months will determine whether rates will drop or become even more “ridiculous” than they are now. “It’s like a storm,” Granados said. “We’ve got to weather it, and we’ve got to just get to the other side.”

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